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Net exports as an indicator of competitiveness of Southeast Asian economies

Artur V. Kuchumov
Polina Y. Eremicheva

The relevance of this study stems from the need to find objective and measurable indicators for assessing the competitiveness of the dynamically developing but structurally heterogeneous economies of Southeast Asia. In the context of global trade imbalances and increasing regional competition, net exports (trade balance) provide relevant data for analyzing countries' positions on the international stage. The aim of this study is to comprehensively assess the level and dynamics of competitiveness in Southeast Asian countries based on an analysis of net exports over a nine-year period from 2015 to 2024. To achieve this goal, a combination of general scientific and empirical methods was used. The methodological framework consisted of systems and statistical analysis. Formalization, specification, and content analysis were used. The key calculation method was the direct calculation of net exports as the difference between total exports and imports. The research data base was formed by data from international organizations (World Bank, Trading Economics, OEC) and relevant academic publications. The study yielded the following key findings, which demonstrate scientific novelty. For the first time, a comparative analysis of net export dynamics was conducted for an entire pool of eleven countries in the region for a period spanning post-pandemic recovery and new global challenges. Based on these calculations, countries were classified by their trade balance, identifying groups with persistent trade surpluses (Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia), chronic trade deficits (Philippines, Timor-Leste), and unstable trade balances (Thailand, Indonesia). It was found that for a number of countries, high imports may indirectly indicate not only dependence but also investment activity and integration into global value chains. The hypothesis that net exports serve as a comprehensive indicator, integrating the influence of industrial policy, integration processes, and comparative advantage, was quantitatively confirmed. The practical value of the study lies in the fact that the obtained results and the proposed classification can be used by government agencies in the region and international organizations to develop and adjust trade and industrial development strategies, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of economic policy measures. The main conclusion of the study is that net exports are a relevant indicator of competitiveness, allowing for a clear differentiation of the positions of Southeast Asian countries in international trade. Despite common challenges, the region's key economies demonstrate the ability to maintain competitiveness, while countries with chronic deficits require targeted structural reforms. Prospects for further research include an in-depth factor analysis of net export dynamics using econometric models, a study of the resilience of trade balances to global shocks, and a detailed analysis of the role of countries in regional value chains. Expanding the methodology by incorporating qualitative indicators, such as the complexity of the export basket, also appears highly relevant.

Keywords: net exports, competitiveness, trade balance, foreign trade, regional economy, economic development, export, import.
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Kuchumov, A. V., Eremicheva, P. Yu. (2026), “Net exports as an indicator of competitiveness of Southeast Asian economies”, Research Result. Business and Service Technologies, 12 (1), pp.

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