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Transformation of management approaches in tourism: a foresight methodology for innovative development in a polycrisis environment

Elena V. Pecheritsa

Traditional models of strategic planning in the tourism industry show low efficiency in the face of a global polycrisis characterized by nonlinearity and a high rate of change. The existing gap between the inertia of the tourism physical infrastructure and the dynamics of consumer preferences poses a threat of «strategic blindness» for destinations, which requires a conceptual revision of management paradigms. The need for the transformation of management approaches in tourism is dictated by the transition to the BANI world, where the long-term sustainability of a business depends not on adaptation to accomplished facts, but on the ability to proactively design an innovative future. The research is relevant for developing navigation tools in the context of technological disruptions (AI, IoT) and creating resilient tourism ecosystems. The methodological framework is based on a systematic analysis approach and a forecasting methodology based on foresight. The work employs ideal modeling to develop an original foresight cycle, horizon scanning, and STEEP analysis to classify «weak signals». The theoretical propositions were verified through the case study method (using Singapore as an example) and scenario modeling of alternative industry development paths. An original foresight forecasting methodology is substantiated as a fundamental element of transforming tourism management systems. A 5-stage foresight cycle model was developed, integrating the search for innovative growth points and «wild cards» analysis into a single management circuit. A matrix of technological trends was formed, allowing for the classification of innovations (AI, block chain, immersive technologies) by the vector of their impact on destination stability in a polycrisis environment. The hypothesis that the implementation of foresight technologies ensures the transition from reactive to proactive types of innovative development is proven. It is concluded that the transformation of management approaches based on foresight management allows destinations to maintain competitiveness in the long term. The practical implementation of the proposed methodology contributes to the creation of flexible development roadmaps that minimize «black swan» risks and ensure the transition to a sustainable regenerative tourism model.

Keywords: foresight forecasting, tourism, innovative development, polycrisis, scenario modeling, BANI world, digital transformation.
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